Cash Game Strategy DraftKings NFL Week 10
Week 10 is upon us and the prices are staying pretty stiff. A few values have seemingly opened up at the RB position and as always that is where I will start. Last week the free square Jaylen Samuels ended up working out very well, DraftKings raised his price up to a fruity $6300
making you have to think about playing him going forward. I have moderate interest in him this week because the game at home against The Rams sets up nicely for him as I believe The Steelers will need volume passing to hang in there with The Rams. I say Samuels can get there this week with a 3X performance at best. Still not the most exciting way to spend $6300
This weeks "free square" seems to be one Ronald Jones at just $4300. While I felt very strong about Jaylen Samuels last week, I cannot help but not get that same feeling with Ronald Jones here, still the data seems to back up Arians at least to a degree as Jones did play a season high 53% of snaps with Peyton Barber seeing a season low of 13% Ogunbawale snuck in for 26% of snaps last week, so while the coach-speak is encouraging that data is somewhat dubious at this point. On paper last week Jones had 18 carries and 2 targets, being as that was done on only a little more than half the snaps it just makes sense to me that even a slight increase of work would pay dividends at this price.
Of course with the value that opens up if you play Jones, you can then plug in Christian McCaffrey, doing so then makes you kind of have to play Jaylen Samuels in that third running back spot. While David Johnson and Todd Gurley are more palatable to me and are also in play at that price point. Nick Chubb and Marlon Mack are the guys we want at that 7K range if you can make it work with your build.
From there lets now put in a defense I like to focus on a sub 3K defense, because why? DEFENSE DOESN'T MATTER! That's right kids. All kidding aside though, this strategy makes the most sense to me due to us wanting safe plays overall on the top end and this will help us in salary. This week we have some great options. My favorite among them may be The Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Kyler Murray is 5th in pass attempts this season, facing a Bucs defense that shut down Christian McCaffrey in week 2 and is regarded as being fairly stout. If you are not playing David Johnson Bucs defense will be my go to cash game defense this week. I would also give serious consideration here to a Carolina, Rams or Pittsburgh for these same reasons stated facing teams that generally are passing the ball at a high rate.
After selecting a defense you feel good about, lets lock in a TE. I found it very interesting that DraftKings priced down all the TEs below 7K. Travis Kelce and Austin Hooper are the clear alphas at the position. With their friendly pricing this week it makes them both firmly in play. Below them I really like Jared Cook, who should see some increased reps with Josh Hill banged up which is a plus. Below those options if you really need to save money at TE I am interested in a guy like Ryan Griffin. Griffin has been the best kept secret in fantasy this year imo. His snap share has been through the roof this season and I have never heard his name ever uttered anywhere practically. Last week was troubling as it was announced that Chris Herndon would be suiting up for the first time this year, Herndon much to my chagrin still barely played and this week has been practicing in a limited fashon all week. So all in all I feel good about Ryan Griffin keeping his snap share right around the 92% of plays he was on the field last week. For $3100 on DraftKings you could do a lot worse flying at TE.
Now let's talk QB, For my cash builds I don't care to stack. Now even though stacking is optimal when playing DFS, I like to use it almost exclusively in GPP. The reason for this being is in a cash game we are aiming for safe floors, therefore I treat QB as a seperate entity from WR. So when selecting a QB I am looking for two things, either a rushing QB or a QB that does not have an atypical alpha WR1 and is more prone to spreading out 4 TDs among four different players on their team. With that being said this week we do have some options. Lamar Jackson is like the prototypical ethos of both of these kinds of players, due to him being a running QB who also spreads the ball around a ton. If you can afford to do so Lamar Jackson may be your safest bet in cash. Jameis Winston may be the highest owned cash game QB this week and people are going to be running Jameis stacks all over the place. I want to differentiate myself this week in cash so where possible I'll be playing Lamar, possibly a splash of Naked Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
Of course if we pay up at QB it takes us out of the running for these higher priced WRs. This build would leave us roughly around 5K per player, so there are some values down here in this area to make this work. Jarvis Landry has been down at this salary range all season and is still due for a high upside game. There is a lot of talk as well for Odell Beckham Jr. at $6100 which is also in play but I see as more of a GPP option. Landry gives us a nice safe target/catch floor. Curtis Samuel is $4.6 K and is still in the tops of the league in air yards, if you don;t pay up for McCaffrey Samuel and or DJ Moore should be in your builds. Robert Woods should see an uptick in looks with Brandin Cooks out this week. Even though Josh Reynolds takes Cooks work in theory, I think that it just ends up in increased plays called for Woods and Kupp. Zach Pascal is the ipsto facto WR1 in Indianapolis and at just $5300 seems like a lock in his situation against Miami.
For more DFS Strategy for NFL Week 10 Listen to this weeks #Brandpod Below!
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Brandon Hickswww.takingbackdfs.com
Twitter @bearlhicks @takingbackdfs