Tournament Secrets Of DraftKings: Super Ceiling! Finding Games To Target!
The main goal of a GPP is to have the highest total score and take down the tournament. In order to win significant money you must come in the top five of a tournament. The difference between first and fifth in large field tournaments is sometimes as small as 5-10 points. In order to win these bad boys, you'll need to have one or two players, at each position, that finish top five at their position for the week. Let's look at tail-tail signs that a game is prime to produce a top five player.
You Think The Game Will Be Competitive and Close:
This is a plus. If a game is competitive and close, despite the score, you will get 60 minutes of pure playing time. If you see someone you know has the capability to put up huge numbers, and they are going to be in a close game, they will have more opportunities to make plays thus increasing their value. I like to call these quality plays.
Many times when games are lopsided (2 Possession Games) the game script switches and the leading team will go into clock shaving, field position and playing defense mode. Thus shutting down production for most of the offense. You need full throttle from all of your players to stand a chance in a large field tournament.
In close games both teams are looking to score touchdowns. Not run out the clock or rest players or kick a field goal. Next week look at the top fantasy scorers from the previous weeks. Most of them come from close games with the sprinkled blowout guy.
Blowouts:
This can be quite deceiving!! Most of the time in blowouts someone gets really hot and dominates for 3 quarters. Then they end production. Rarely in blowouts are the points evenly distributed, it'll be one or two guys and the rest of the team does nothing. So if you think the game has strong blowout potential, take the RB or QB WR you think will go off.I often made the mistake of stacking (adding a bunch of players from the same team) these games where there was a huge point spread. It's smarter to just take one or two players that get the most volume. How often do you see two teammates of the same position both get top five in fantasy points?
Injuries:
When the opposing defense is banged up, the offense has a chance to produce more points than what is projected. Look for for games where the defenses are missing key players. This will naturally raise the ceiling of players because the defense is banged up. You know the NFL coaches are all over this. They will try and attack the weakest spots of the defense. If a team is rolling with a new defensive player due to injury, you may want to look for a volume dude who will be opposing that defense.
Match-ups:
This one is a common thing among the DraftKings community. If a WR1 or WR2 is going against a team that gives up a lot of points to the position then naturally, yet again, people assume the ceiling rises. I don't think that is relevant all the time. According to my stats it actually raises the floor as opposed to the ceiling. So if you play cash games and 50/50's than this maybe a good indicator of safe bets. But don't think for a second a guy that hasn't produced a 40 Draftking point game will automatically have a chance to do so against a team with bad stats.
Conclusion:
It's alot easier to pick five guys that have produced huge weekly points, than it is to find the one "who is going to do it this week". So stick to the guys who have done it before and have the chance to put up 30-40 again this week. It doesn't matter how much they cost, get them on your team.
You don't always need the number one guy for the week, but a mixture of top 5 guys at each position. I hope this article opened your mind a bit as well as offer new strategies.
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