NFL Week 3: How Vegas Thinks The Games Will Play Out! Part One
In today's article we will be going over the implied totals for each game and how that correlates to your draftkings lineup.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans: 19-21 Titans
With the game set to be a low scoring affair with only five total touchdowns projected, it's likely that a defense could snag one or two of those. Leaving 2-3 touchdowns available for offensive skill players. I see a bunch of three and outs.
The game script will likely play out with a bunch of running from both teams and an ugly air game with both QB's throwing picks. The only value here is the two running backs Fournette and Henry. I expect them to get the ball often.
Both defenses get run on 25+ times a game. You can expect much of the same in this stinker.
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins: 35-13 Cowboys
This may come as no surprise. The only good thing going for the Dolphins is their inevitable #1 pick next year.Vegas has the Cowboys coming out and scoring 4 TD's. The only question is will it be a blowout in the 1st quarter with the air game? Or a slow grind run heavy approach?
The Cowboys are looking to get Zeke back on track for MVP talks and what better defense to unleash the beast on? Miami's run defense is so bad that opposing quarterbacks only throw on them 30 times a game. No team has been rushed on more times than Miami's defense.
On a day like this expect Zeke to be featured heavy and Dak making dump offs over the middle on 3rd and manageable. I think we can fade the receivers and Dak in this game. I see Zeke as almost a must own and possibly Jason Witten.
If you see it being a blowout where Dallas slings it, I'd take a chance on Cooper. Most of his production comes running across the middle.A place where the Miami defense is extremely weak.
Oakland Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings: 18-26 Vikings
This is going to be an interesting game. The Raiders are projected to score two touchdowns. I wouldn't be surprised if they were both passing touchdowns. Minnesota Vikings have given up the most completions to players right up the middle. Darren Waller is the guy in the middle for the Raiders. So look for Waller to have 10+ catches. Tyrell Williams could catch one, but the chances are unlikely. The Vikings have two great corners that cover the sides well.
On the Vikings side of the ball I could see Kirk Cousins passing for 2 touchdowns. The Raiders have a weak pass defense getting thrown on a staggering 45 times a game. So look for Kirk Cousins to have a bunch of opportunities throwing it down the field.
Dalvin Cook is another player that has the potential to have a big game. I could see him being utilized all game no matter what the game script may be. He will catch passes out of the backfield and could have big plays against a defense that gives up 4.3 yards per carry. I could easily see a 2 TD day for Cook.
Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals: 24-20 Bills
With all the hype on old man Frank Gore this week, Josh Allen is quietly stringing top 10 fantasy quarterbacks weekly. He has been in the top 10 QB's eight week in a row. I see this being a game where Josh Allen gets a piece of all three projected touchdowns. He accounts for 50% of redzone carries. Gore is a good canadate to get work from the 20 to 20 yard line and his ceiling is capped by Allens productivity in the redzone.The Bengals have all but abandoned the run so far this year. The Bills give up the most completions to weak side receivers in the entire NFL. Look for John Ross and Andy Dalton. They are barley underdogs and with such a small point spread look for this to be competitive all the way until the last drive. When Bengals have played from behind the last 5 games John Ross's targets triple.
I don't think Tyler Boyd will get the value his price tag is. So buyer beware with Boyd, for the game script looks to favor J. Ross this game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens: 32-24 Chiefs
On paper this thing looks to be air raid city. Everyone thinks Lamar Jackson and company will be able to move the ball through the air. I don't see this happening. It's going to be a hostile game with the crowd. I don't think the Ravens will be able to pick up big chunk yards through the air. I believe the Ravens will run the ball and try and control the time of possession.
That being said the Chiefs will find a way to move the ball. The Ravens give up a lot of short passes on the strong side of the field. This is good news for Sammy Watkins. Hardman is in the slot 65% of the time running routes up the middle. The Ravens defense has given up the least amount of completions to the middle and weak side of the field. Travis Kelcie's most effective routes have been weak side and middle of the field. He has only been targeted once on the strong side of the field where the Ravens are the weakest.
The Chiefs will not be able to move the ball effectively on the ground leaving the game on Mahomes shoulders. He will find his outside guys through much of the game. I see big games for Robinson and Watkins both in this one, with the slight edge for Watkins.
Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons: 22-24 Colts
This one may have some surprising value at wide reciever position. Let's break it down. The Falcons have all but abandoned the run. The Colts run game will keep the time of possession in favor of the colts. So look for Marlon Mack to have huge volume. With the Colts running game chewing down the clock, the Falcons will yet again feel behind the clock. This will force the Falcons to rely on the deep ball game (The Falcons are top five in long pass attempts. So far they have attempted 17 shots down the field).
Matt Ryan will put up a decent stat line (300 yards 2 TD's 2 INTS). There might not be very much scoring, but I do expect plenty of yards. Look for Calvin Ridley to have a great game for his current draftkings price. With Julio Jones shaping up to be chalk (for the price, there is way better value at the same price tag) Ridley and Sanu might be two guys worth looking at. I expect all the Falcons scores being long passes and barley any redzone action.
When games are closer the average pass attempts go up from one or both teams. So grab atleast a little piece of this game. There could potentially be a highest scoring fantasy points player in this game and you'll want him in your lineup if it happens.
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